Tuesday, December 06, 2005

The List : 60 - 79

Time for the second installment of The List and there are one or two genuine superstars here that might make a lot of other peoples top 10's but that would be too easy.

79 Khalil Greene, SS, San Diego Padres
Another slick middle infielder who slaps the ball around and knows how to use his speed. The Padres really miss him when he’s not in the line-up as he is a true igniter who always seems to do something unexpected that will lift his team. It’s a shame guys like this seem to be going out of fashion.

78 Josh Barfield, 2B, San Diego Padres
Ordinarily I look for middle infielders who can flash the leather rather than simply hanging around the keystone waiting for their next at-bat but for some reason I find it easy to forgive the son of the great Jesse Barfield (even I can let bias slip in from time to time).

77 Guillermo Quiroz, C, Toronto Blue Jays
I’ve been waiting for this guy to crack the Blue Jay line-up for about a year and a half now. Every time I hear about Quiroz I hear really good things about his play whilst wearing the armour and occasionally his ability to swing a bat. He could either be a young Charles Johnson or another Kevin Cash.

76 Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Even Yankee haters respect Jeter. You cannot deny that this guy is as clutch as they come and all that is whilst playing under arguably the brightest spotlight in professional sport. Its hard to figure out who is more important in terms of keeping good karma in the Yankee clubhouse, Torre or Jeter.

75 Francisco Cordero, P, Texas Rangers
He might not look the most athletic guy in the league or even appear to care too much about what’s going on around him but when Cordero comes into a game you know what’s coming and you know no-ones going to stop him doing it.

74 Scott Rolen, 3B, St Louis Cardinals
It was a shame the way he left Philadelphia and all the animosity it seemed to engender but you can’t ignore a guy who has this much talent at the plate and in the field. When he plays the hot corner you can always expect to see him do something spectacular and with all the runs he puts on the board, he probably takes away almost double that.

73 Oliver Perez, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
One of the most baffling talents in MLB. A power pitching lefty with one of the nastiest hooks around and if he has his mojo working, can rip apart any order on any night but luckily for the league he doesn’t seem to have his mojo too often.

72 Jesse Crain, P, Minnesota Twins
This guy is a real fire cracker on the mound with a mid-90’s fastball and a tight slider that jumps out of his hand. The first time I saw him I said to myself he will be an elite closer one day and I still think that.

71 Matt Cain, P, San Francisco Giants
This guy could be a rare thing for the Giants; an impact player younger than 30. Cain has an easy delivery that sees the ball jump out of his hand and he just attacks the zone. Certainly one to look for in the future.

70 Francisco Liriano, P, Minnesota Twins
You may have heard of a guy called Johan Santana, well Liriano could be just as good. Like Santana he has a hard fastball and a great change and if the way he absolutely abused minor league hitters last year is anything to go by (that is actually an understatement) there is no telling how good he could be. Don’t be fooled by his numbers after being called up last year, he is the real deal.

69 Carlos Lee, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
While at the White Sox Carlos Lee never got that much attention as he was on a line-up with the likes of Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko but once he landed in Milwaukee he emerged from shadows to show just what a great hitter he always was. What people still don’t seem to realise is that he can steal a bag too. The only mark against him is his D where he doesn’t take the best routes but what he does do is give maximum effort out there and while he can’t do a lot he does what he can.

68 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
In his first year as a pro Zimmerman made it to the Bigs, aged just 20, and didn’t look out of place. The easiest thing to think of with this guy is to imagine Scott Rolen with maybe a little less power but better average. There is nothing he can’t do and he will get much better and much stronger. This guy can be special.

67 Eric Chavez, 3B, Oakland A’s
Eric Chavez is one of the most amiable guys in baseball and always gives good copy and once he’s on the field he typifies the Oakland A’s ethos. He’s a disciplined hitter with good pop and without him in the order the A’s always struggle. One of the few true leaders in the sport.

66 Carlos Beltran, CF, New York Mets
There is nothing Carlos Beltran can’t do on a baseball field and he might be, pound for pound, the most talented player in baseball. Niggling injuries stymied his performances last year but when healthy he is arguably the best base runner in baseball, can hit for power, gets on base and only Andruw Jones is better in the field. If he ever finds a way to put all his tools together at once then watch out.

65 Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
I start to wonder if we’ll ever see just how good a catcher this guy could be. Catchers are often on borrowed time due to the demands of the job but the injury bug has already taken a hold of Mauer in his two years with the big club. Even if he never puts in a full season as a catcher, wherever he plays he could be an All Star.

64 Joe Nathan, P, Minnesota Twins
I bet the Giants miss Nathan and Liriano more than they miss A.J. Pierzynski. Came to the Twins as a failed starter and is now one of the elite closers in baseball. He comes at you with a hard fastball and a nasty slider and is as tough to hit as anyone.

63 Ben Sheets, P, Milwaukee Brewers
After a strong showing at The Olympics Sheets drew a lot of attention and was pegged to be a big game pitcher and many were disappointed by his average showing in his rookie year. Then came 2004 where, if not for a phenomenal year from Randy Johnson, Ben Sheets would have been the guy people were harping on about how you could possibly not give him the Cy. A mid-90’s fastball, one of the nastiest curveballs in baseball and with a Milwaukee line-up which is brewing some exciting young hitters it might not be too long till people are asking how you could possibly not give him the Cy?

62 Carlos Zambrano, P, Chicago Cubs
At the beginning of every year people in Chicago talk about how Wood and Prior are as dominant as there are in the league and how Maddux is on his way to the Hall of Fame but by the end of every year Zambrano emerges as the most dependable starter in the rotation. Makes you wonder when people will start to notice the pattern?

61 Rafael Furcal, SS, Atlanta Braves
This guy is just exciting. Furcal has great speed and knows how to use it to get on base and score runs. He also might have the best arm of any infielder and he has such confidence in it that he attempts throws that he has no business believing might get people out and often makes errors from just trying way too hard and too much effort is never a bad thing in my book.

60 Thomas Diamond, P, Texas Rangers
When Diamond was drafted he already had a great fastball and a good change and he mixed both well enough that he managed to strikeout 101 batters in 81 1/3 innings in A ball and after he moved up he started working on a breaking pitch and made the adjustment and started beating up on AA hitters. If he continues to progress then Texas might finally have the pitching to take advantage of that great offence they’ve put together.

Saturday, December 03, 2005

The List : 100-80

A while ago, when I started playing fantasy baseball (sadly even I have been bitten by that bug), a friend started asking me about who I was likely to pick and he'd throw names at me and I would say if they were on my list or not. Since then The List has evolved into something more than players who would be handy to have on your fantasy roster to something far less quantifiable and now it's a compilation of my favourite players in the game.

It must be noted that this is not a list of the best or most talented players around (there is no place in Spurious Baseball for such clear cut things) but the characters around the league and players who play this beautiful game the way I think it should be played so sit back and enjoy this feature which should keep things ticking over in here. At least until the winter meetings get under way.



100 Brandon Stricklen, P, Houston Astros
A 42nd round draft choice in his first year of pro ball who can throw hard might not sound too exciting but this is a guy who, if he hadn’t been a ball player, would be on his way to being an FBI agent. How cool is that?

99 Taylor Teagarden, C, Texas Rangers
Like many of Scott Boras’ clients going into the draft, Teagarden was drafted later than he might have been (3rd round) but some scouts have likened his potential to that of über-prospect Joe Mauer. Needless to say this is a guy worth watching.

98 Coco Crisp, LF, Cleveland Indians
How can you not think of Coco Crisp and not smile? He has the coolest name in all of sports. Add to that he is a dynamic and speedy player who is capable of some spectacular plays and spectacular misplays. You have to love this guy.

97 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
They say this guy is like Bobby Crosby but with potentially better tools. The fact that Colorado feel that Tulowitzki might be able to join the big club within another year, maybe two, just emphasises what kind of potential he has. He could be special.

96 Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Atlanta Braves
This guy has too many A’s in his name not to be compelling. Everything you hear about this guy makes him sound like Jason Varitek with a better bat. The organisation raves about his play calling and handling of pitchers and you just have to look up the numbers to see what he can do with the bat. They are even confident he can improve his ability to throw out runners. We shall see.

95 Bobby Jenks, P, Chicago White Sox
The guy is the size of a tank and once he wheels out of the of the pen to the mound, it must seem like he’s firing shells at the catchers glove. His fastball can get into triple digits and when he gets his curveball going its just lights out.

94 Jeff Francoeur, RF, Atlanta Braves
There’s no denying the amount of talent this guy has both at the plate and in the field but the thing I love about this guy is that he will not be walked. If its around the plate he’s going to swing at it and his hand-eye coordination is good enough that he’ll hit most of them.

93 BJ Upton, SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The prodigal E6 Upton is endless entertainment. All last year I would look at the reports and see if he had added another error to his prolific total. Most people would love to have as many doubles as Upton had errors last year. With the errors does come a lot of other huge numbers and that is why he is near the top of most of the lists of top prospects. This guy can do it all…almost.

92 Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
I remember a day when everyone would think of shortstops and think of players like Erick Aybar. Aybar is a slick fielding and rangy fielder with a bit of pop and very good speed on the bases. It’s a shame that the demands of the modern day shortstop have changed and defensive wizardry seems less important than sticking another bat in the line-up in an attempt to strip baseball of any athleticism in exchange for big burly blokes trotting around the bases and plodding about the field hoping that balls get hit straight at them. We need more Erick Aybar’s.

91 Chad Bradford, P, Boston Red Sox
This guy scrapes his knuckles on the floor from time to time in his delivery. What else do you need to know?

90 Yusmeiro Petit, P, Florida Marlins
He’s had problems adjusting to AAA but control pitchers who struggle to get into the 90’s have such a small margin for error. Prior to this year all he had dominated everyone he had faced and did it all by using his guile and pitching rather than just being a thrower like so many. Time will tell if he can get back to his crafty winning ways.

89 Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Seattle Mariners
What can I say? I love slick defensive shortstops who slap the ball about and trust their speed. It won’t be long till this guy is a regular on highlight reels.

88 Greg Maddux, P, Chicago Cubs
Since I first started watching baseball some twenty years ago, no pitcher has filled me with as much wonder as Greg Maddux. In an age where pitching seems to be about radar guns, Maddux has made a career out of carving line-ups apart with tremendous guts and intelligence and it has been beautiful to watch. The reason he is so far down this list (he would easily make my top 10 of all time players) is because seeing him pitch now only reminds me that those amazing years in the mid-90’s are gone and day to day he just isn’t the pitcher he used to be. Though he might be right at the end of his career but you just feel he has another 80 pitch complete game shutout somewhere and I want to be there when it happens.

87 Brandon Wood, SS, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Before last season Brandon Wood was just another one of the talented middle infield prospects that Anaheim seem laden with. Now he is one of the most explosive young talents in baseball. The season he just had in Rancho Cucamonga was unbelievable leading the minors in homeruns, doubles, extra-base hits and total bases and this was a guy who was drafted for his glove.

86 Russ Adams, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
This is a genuine energy guy who is the sort of person you find on winning teams. He might not have the best speed but he steals bases, he might not be the best or most disciplined hitter but he gets on base, he might not be the strongest guy but he’ll hit one out from time to time, he just plugs away and does what he can for the team.

85 Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta Braves
I could watch Marcus Giles turn double plays all day. No one hangs in longer to make the turn than he does. Its almost like every time he makes the pivot he has some ones cleats in his gut.

84 Bobby Crosby, SS, Oakland A’s
Not the sort of guy who will hit 40 homeruns or steal 40 but Bobby Crosby is one of those guys who just seems to make the whole team around him better and players like that are hard to find. If he played on an east coast team people would talk about him a whole lot more.

83 Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Paul Konerko mulled about the league for ages as an OK slugger who was good enough to put in the middle of the order but not good enough to warrant paying big bucks to keep around. Then he went to Chicago and became an MVP calibre run producer and the sort of guy your team can’t do without. A stabilising presence in the clubhouse and on the field and he’ll richly deserve the big contract he got this off season.

82 Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians
There is something so satisfying about regaling Hafner with praise as he’s one of those guys who plays for an unfashionable team, puts up great numbers but never seems to get much press. It’s like discovering some great band playing in front of fifty people in some obscure music venue before they hit the charts. He truly deserves to be given MVP consideration but if he ever threatened to win it he’d be far less compelling.

81 Felix Pie, CF, Chicago Cubs
Not only is he blessed with a tremendous array of tools, his name is Pie. You can bet there will be a lot of people who have watched certain TV shows and will be forever amusing themselves by uttering the phrase, “I am a big fan of Pie.”

80 Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phils always seem to disappoint me but whenever I see them play Utley does not. He always seems to really work hard and get the most out of himself and never takes a play off. On a Philadelphia team that is carrying a lot of deadwood and is in need of refurbishment, Utley is the sort of player they can rebuild with.

Friday, November 25, 2005

Maddux V Clemens '05

It seems like every year I end up having this debate with someone and the whole thing evolves each and every time but I always come round to the same conclusion and it usually flies in the face of what the other person thinks as I truly believe that, contrary to popular consensus, Greg Maddux has been a better pitcher throughout his career than Roger Clemens.

Now people will bring up the seven Cy Youngs (he may have deserved three or four of those) and the two 20 strikeout games a decade apart which were a part in putting him second on the strikeout list behind fellow Texan Nolan Ryan and I guess if strikeouts are your thing then there's really nothing I can say to change your mind as you've probably believed the hype and think Clemens is the greatest of all time and he'd probably agree with you.

It would be so easy to try and make this a personality thing and we could go on and on about how he abandoned the Jays, who gave him a chance to re-establish his career after it went a bit wobbly in Boston, in pursuit of the green. We could talk about his rep as a head hunter and the whole Subway Series that saw him throw a splintered bat head at Mike Piazza. What do we have to compare that to with Greg Maddux who basically just turns up to the clubhouse everyday, punches in, does his job and punches out? We can't debate this on a PR standpoint as only one of the two really puts his face in the papers or cares about his reputation.

We might as well start with the biggest difference between the two and that’s the strikeout. Like Crash Davis once said, "Strikeouts are fascist." What does a strikeout really mean? What is so great about having the ability to strikeout a lot of people? Don't get me wrong, there are situations where a strikeout is a great thing, like when the bases are jammed with less than two out, but surely if you can keep those ducks off the pond then you won't need to pull that out of the hat. What happens if we have the bases loaded with one out? Is it better to get a K or to get that ground ball to get the double play? Its all swings and roundabouts and while you might think one is more preferable than another, the fact of the matter is both would do in a pinch. The job of the starting pitcher is to give your team the best foundation upon which to win games and it shouldn't matter if you strike out twenty seven guys or get twenty seven groundouts or twenty seven fly outs so long as you get those twenty seven outs. The strikeout is just another means to get an out and its not like Maddux doesn't strike people out, he is a member of the 3000K club which is usually reserved for the top power pitchers who have played, and just because Clemens has over 4000 K's shouldn't necessarily mean that he's better. Surely we should compare these guys in terms of their ability to get outs, keep runners off the bases and stop runs being scored. Isn't that what being a pitcher is all about?

I guess the closest stat related to strikeouts would be opponent batting average as that indicates how tough it is to get a hit off a pitcher (I would have thought). Clemens has restricted hitters to a .206 avg over his career which, unsurprisingly, beats out Maddux and his .228 but Maddux has always been about control so if we move to the en vogue stat of OBP (on base percentage) how does that tip the scales? Clemens shoots up to .293 (I say shoots up but it's still pretty damned good) and Maddux meanders to .285, so what does this mean? Well Maddux is the only player in baseball history to have over 3000 K's and less than 1000 walks which says a lot. Its also worth noting that Maddux has been in a steady decline in recent years whereas Clemens, to his credit has hit a bit of a purple patch so you'd think these numbers would be closing in on each other but also it brings to light just how difficult Maddux was to reach on during his prime. It also goes to show that striking out a lot of people isn't such a big thing if you're just walking other people (there's a reason Nolan Ryan lost as many games as he did).

The importance of the walk also shows up in WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), with Clemens' 1.173 beaten out by Maddux's 1.132 so how can we continue to believe Clemens to be the best pitcher? Maybe its the seven Cy Young Awards to the four of Maddux but what we need to remember here is that the Cy Young Award is for the best pitcher in that particular year. We could draw parallels to someone like Joe Jackson who never won a batting crown but is still third all time in career average. Jackson even batted over .400 one year but that’s what happens when you play in the same era as Ty Cobb. So does the fact that Shoeless Joe never won a batting crown make mean he was a bad hitter? Or maybe he wasn't one of the greatest hitters of all time? Of course it doesn't mean either of these things and likewise with the Cy Young Award.

Maddux had a year in 1998 where he had a Cy worthy season but it was also one of the years where Pedro Martinez was inhuman. Similarly Clemens could be seen to have been lucky to win awards in 2001 where Mussina was better across the board in every stat bar wins, and even in 2004 where several other pitchers could have laid claim to deserving the award. Its all in the eye of the beholder and both Maddux and Clemens might have more or less Cy's than they actually do so why get hung up on it? The fact that we are having this debate means that both have been nigh un-hittable for prolonged periods of time.

Similarly it would be easy to go on about the countless Gold Gloves Maddux has won but as good a fielder as he has been, it would be easy to argue that he doesn't actually deserve the number he has won (the Gold Gloves have become a bit of a joke of late anyway). Maddux needs to be a good fielder because he pitches to contact and needs to be able to field the stuff that gets back at him if he's going to be effective. Clemens has built his game on the strikeout (come on, he is so fixated on strikeouts that his kids names all start with the letter 'K') and therefore isn't expecting many balls to be hit his way if he's on his game. We're back to the power pitcher vs. finesse pitcher argument again where we always come round to the simple fact that the two have different demands and basically one is not necessarily preferable to the other so long as they get the outs.

I've also heard the argument that because Maddux has played his entire career in the DH free National League he has benefited from having to face fewer proper hitters and that his numbers would be less favourable if he had pitched in the American League. This seems to neglect to factor in the fact that in the AL pitchers can focus on nothing but pitching and can be pulled as soon as they hit trouble rather than be left in till the end of the frame so they can last until their spot in the order comes up. How often do we need to see a pitcher coasting through a game, get a hit, runs the bases and then straight after he seems to lose effectiveness? We could also factor in the whole Coors effect or dig up the number of pitchers injured by being hit by pitches but the whole argument about how leagues effect your numbers is so tenuous you could argue back and forth and never get anywhere because the pros and cons offset each other and the whole issue is a mute point.

Many people wish to dismiss the win as an over-rated stat but it can also not be ignored as what else is there that’s more important in baseball than teams winning games and starting pitchers are a big part of that. Both have reached the mighty plateau of 300 wins and might well be the last two guys who reach that level for a very long time but on the face of it Clemens has 23 more wins which comfortably puts him ahead of Maddux even if you account for his extra year of experience. What I would like to factor in is something that many would love to forget and that is the strike of '94. That year Clemens was in the midst of a spell which had the Red Sox thinking he was in decline and his average numbers would soon see him leave for a renaissance in Toronto. In Atlanta however, Greg Maddux was doing his best Bob Gibson impersonation in a year where he went 16-6 with a 1.56 ERA in the abridged season and he followed that with a similar showing in '95 where he went a staggering 19-2 with a 1.63 ERA. Over his career Greg Maddux has averaged 33 starts a season but in his two prime years he started 25 and 28 respectively due to the shortened schedule so that’s 13 starts in a period of dominance that he lost. Over the same period Clemens went 9-7, 2.85 and 10-5, 4.18 so, in a nutshell, the strike hit Maddux whilst he was at his best and Clemens when he was at his relative worst.

Of course it's impossible to say how many games Maddux might have won if not for the strike or how it would have effected Clemens but it does make you think what if..? Its also worth noting that both Maddux' seasons either side of the strike were statistically superior to anything Clemens has ever done including his spectacular '05 and 1990 campaigns.

Also on the subject of wins, how can we forget that Greg Maddux has achieved an unmatched feat that not even the likes of Christy Matthewson, Walter Johnson and the other great pitchers of the dead ball era could achieve by winning 15 games or more in seventeen straight seasons which is an unbelievable achievement which exemplifies how metronomic he has been throughout his career. It is this consistency that seems to have hurt his notoriety as people seem to expect him to do it even though for most 200+ innings and 15+ wins is a great year.

Clemens has punctuated his career with a handful of so-so seasons and then a good few great years. You almost expect the wheels to fall off a guy when he does that which means we are amazed when they don't whereas Maddux seemed to be expected to just roll on. Even now with his days numbered Maddux has still only had four years with an ERA over 4.00 (his first two and last two no less) and Clemens has had five scattered throughout his career so how do we weigh those numbers against each other? Is it better to be the hare who shot off ahead and then had periodical snoozes or to be the tortoise who just plodded on slow and steady?

So where does this leave us? Basically with a lot of interpretation and conjecture like most baseball related debates (I love this game). The way I see it, both have had tremendous careers reaching some of the heady heights that only the truly great reach and no matter who you are you can't possibly deny that both are first ballot Hall of Famers and genuine legends of the game but having played their careers over roughly the same era you'd think we would be in as good a position as you could be to compare two of baseballs all time greats.

It's easy to make arguments for both and those of us who saw both in their prime probably will make those arguments for a very long time. I must admit that watching Greg Maddux in the 1990's shaped the way I viewed the art of pitching as he literally bewildered hitters (the Chambers Dictionary defines bewilder as "to perplex, confuse; to cause to get lost" which sums it up beautifully) and the way power pitchers like Clemens go about their business seems far less poetic. I believe the stats back me up when I say Maddux has been a better pitcher but we all know that there are lies, damn lies and statistics and you can make statistics fit any argument but that’s what I believe. How can you not see the greatness of a guy who could shut out teams in less than two hours by throwing less than 90 pitches?

Saturday, November 19, 2005

The Awards Season Summary

Well its awards time and I thought we’d see how my picks stack up against the actual picks. I doubt they’ll match up too much but that’s why this is Spurious Baseball.

AL Rookie
My Choice : Huston Street, Oak
To me its not even close. While Chacin, Iguchi and ‘Tin Can’ Cano (with the bat that is) have had good seasons, Street single handedly solidified a very young bullpen which took a lot of pressure off a very young rotation and was a key figure for an over-achieving Oakland side.
MLB’s Choice : Huston Street, Oak (97 points, 15 first place votes)
A sufficiently large portion of the votes just goes to show how obvious a choice he was.

NL Rookie
My Choice : Willy Taveras, Hou
It’s a toss up between him and Howard in Philadelphia, but Taveras has had to be the igniter on a very limp offence all year and that got the Astros a wild card birth. While his numbers might not be as impressive as others, his importance is that much higher.
MLB’s Choice : Ryan Howard, Phi (109 points, 19 first place votes), Taveras (78, 7)
I still maintain that Taveras was more important to his team but its hard to argue with the guy who was up there among all rookies in most offensive/power categories.

AL Manager
My Choice : Ozzie Guillen, Chx
A lot of people want to heap praise on Eric Wedge but I picked Cleveland to win that division at the beginning of the year and the way they played in the second half of the season was how they should have been playing all year. Meanwhile, Ozzie Guillen took a team that no one picked to win the division and made them the best team in the AL.
MLB’s Choice : OzzieGuillen, Chx (105, 17)
Ozzie Guillen takes an un-fancied team all the way and gets his just reward and the only surprise to me is the size of his majority as I thought Macha and Wedge would get more support.

NL Manager
My Choice : Bobby Cox, Atl
How can it be anyone else? That team was decimated by injuries and most parts of the team not only had to refer to plan B but also plans C, D and E. This team had so many personnel problems but they still won the division with time to spare and that says so much of how good a manager Cox is.
MLB’s Choice : Bobby Cox, Atl (152, 28)
It really was a case of who else could you possibly vote for? Is there even a slight case for someone else?

AL Cy Young
My Choice : Mariano Rivera, Nyy
The first week of the season Boston roughed him up a little and then he shutdown every other team for the rest of the year. Just an unbelievable year from a guy who is really carving out his niche in baseball history.
MLB’s Choice : Bartolo Colon, LAA (118, 17), Rivera (68, 8)
They really should change this award to become the Cy Young Award for Most Wins. What’s most amazing is the size of his victory margin because while he had a good season as a real stopper for the Angels (even through injury), Johan Santana and Mariano Rivera were more dominant all year and should have at least split the vote more.
I suppose what would the off-season be without another bout of people talking about how wins are an over-rated stat?

NL Cy Young
My Choice : Chris Carpenter, StL
This guy was huge for St Louis all year. He not only ate up innings and kept his team in every game When he was matched up against other teams aces in clutch games down the stretch, he was a monster pitching complete games where he held the opposition to practically nothing.
MLB’s Choice : Chris Carpenter, StL (132, 19)
I had this guy as my third place pick in MVP voting. Just an outstanding year from a guy who’s had more than his fair share of adversity.

AL MVP
My Choice : Scott Podsednik, Chx
Yes, Ortiz carried the Sox with more clutch hits than you can shake a big stick at. Yes, A-Rod notched up some gaudy numbers but in a nutshell, with Podsednik in the line-up the ChiSox were the best team in baseball. Take him out and they start limping to the playoffs. He comes back and they’re the best team in baseball. Sounds like an MVP to me.
MLB’s Choice : Alex Rodriguez, Nyy (331, 16), David Ortiz (307, 11), Podsednik (15, 0)
Well what a surprise they give it to the sluggers. Oh well, I guess when you’re on a roster worth $200m and you stutter all year and eventually make it unconvincingly into the playoffs then someone on that team must have put forward a huge effort to make that team stutter. Oh how valuable A-Rod has been because he must be valuable because if he just put up numbers then he’d win the Hank Aaron Award instead. I mean, isn’t that what it’s there for?

NL MVP
My Choice : Albert Pujols, StL
As good as Andruw Jones was in a similar situation to Pujols (both were immense on teams with injuries to key guys in the line-up) it simply comes down to the fact that Albert was better. Right now Bonds is probably the only player who impacts how opponents play his team more than Pujols.
MLB’s Choice : Albert Pujols, StL (378, 18), Andruw Jones, Atl (351, 13)
Nice to see Pujols get the nod but also nice to see Andruw run him close. You really couldn’t argue either as both were integral to teams who endured a number of injuries to their line-ups but still managed to make it to the post-season.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

10 Reasons to Hate the Gold Glove Awards

10 Its so obvious that offence counts when they allocate them (Varitek over Molina? Give me a break)

9 Have you seen what they look like? Damn they look cheap and tacky

8 When in doubt, give it to whoever won it last year

7 They serve to highlight how the value of defence has diminished in recent years. Where’s the pomp and circumstance?

6 They seem to be doled out to guys who people think deserve some award but are unlikely to get one (Jeter)

5 Reputations mean that too many players get more Gold Gloves than they deserve e.g. 1999 when Palmeiro won a Gold Glove as a DH even though David Segui was awesome at first that year

4 You can count on one hand how many players got into The Hall because of their glove. I mean, how long did it take for Mazeroski to get in? Its what players do most of and the thing players get least recognition for!

3 You know there are people who base their choices on fielding percentage and that really is the most pointless and meaningless stat in the history of stats

2 What sort of award is it when Kenny Rogers is included especially after the season he’s had and when there are guys like Buerhle and Mussina out there?

1 They don’t actually indicate who the best defensive players are, do they?

Sunday, November 06, 2005

The Dodgers Lost Their Nerve by Richard Meade

Picture the scene - you are a wealthy Real Estate entrepreneur who has just taken over an MLB team. You want to bring in fresh faces, give the team a strong reputation, and encourage a winning attitude. So one of the first things you do is hire a GM with a big reputation who believes in a new brand of baseball.

In the GM’s first season the team bring home the divisional title and in an injury plagued second season the team finish fourth.

What do you do?

If you’re Frank McCourt, Chairman of the LA Dodgers, you let your GM sack your team’s Manager then you sack your General Manager and leave your fans and players scratching their heads about how the team is going to be run next season.

Last week McCourt came out in front of a packed press conference and announced that after only two seasons he had shown GM Paul DePodesta the door. The first thing that sprang to my mind was that McCourt had lost his nerve.

When LA hired DePodesta in 2004 I remember thinking that it was a good move. I had just read Moneyball and I was interested to see that another big league club was taking notice of what Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s had managed to achieve. I was eager to see what DePodesta, who had come to fame as part of that organisation, was going to do with this team. Would we see a Dodgers team to be feared or was their new GM going to drop the ball?

Initially things looked good, despite inheriting a manger rather than choosing one, LA took the division by two games but went out in four games to the St Louis Cardinals in the NL divisional series.

DePodesta started making some big trades, most controversially one that took Paul Lo Duca to the Marlins. He brought in Jeff Kent, J.D. Drew and Derek Lowe and began creating a team he thought could compete.

But then the injuries struck and everyone got nervous. The Dodgers suffered an abysmal season and rather than chalking it up to a transition period or looking at the amount of players they had on the DL, LA got scared and sacked everyone.

I don’t understand how they could have come to that decision. Any other GM would have been given the benefit of the doubt or at least a couple more seasons crack at the whip. Would Paul DePodesta’s brand of baseball have worked in LA? We will never know for sure. But I think it is a shame that rather than let the man build his team and see where he could go with it the Dodgers lost their nerve and decided to start again.

Sunday, October 30, 2005

A Case For The Black Sox

Well, the season is over but that doesn’t mean life stops for Spurious Baseball and with the ChiSox winning their first title since 1917 I thought I’d open the off-season with the seminal debate over what happened two years after that and the infamous 1919 Black Sox scandal.

For the most part people will try to make the case that certain players were involved in the fix whilst certain others didn’t do anything to hurt their team but while a guy like Buck Weaver (a player Ty Cobb regarded as the best third baseman of his era) posted a good average and played good D, the reason the eight men were banned from the sport was as much about collusion and failure to inform anyone about the fix as much as the fix itself. So while the likes of Chick Gandil and Swede Risberg might have instigated the whole thing and tried the least and guys like Eddie Ciccotte (a certain Hall of Famer if not for his involvement) and Lefty Williams were the key figures in making the fix work, guys like Fred McMullen (a utility guy who was only in because he was Risberg’s friend), Happy Felsch, Weaver, and Joe Jackson knew about it and were therefore banned. I don’t have a problem with that. What I do have a problem with is the way people seem to focus on Joe Jackson and, more importantly, the viewing of his performance through rose tinted glasses and the romanticised depiction he received by D.B. Sweeney in the movie Eight Men Out. Most of the reports you hear from people who actually were there report that while he did have a statistically good series, he was very lackadaisical in his approach in the field and actually had most of his hits in at bats that didn’t really matter (his homerun came in the last game when it was already lost) so in essence this simple man from Carolina who was not smart enough to know better actually did a better job of faking it than anyone else.

Of course the problem most of us have is that there are few people still alive who actually saw those games and most of what we have left is hearsay, conjecture and what was etched into the box score so its hard to really make a qualitative argument to refute what has already been decided. While some people want to claim certain players were wrongfully drawn into the hall of shame, the fact of the matter is that they were all guilty of something so deal with it. What we can and maybe should be debating is how long we leave these guys in the doghouse?

Now a guy like Chick Gandil should be kept on the list of baseball’s big bastards and was never really good enough to even bother the Veterans Committee so we shouldn’t dwell. A guy like Buck Weaver however was certainly good enough to have garnered Hall of Fame consideration and who’s involvement in throwing the Series was often questioned. Ty Cobb was one of the most fearless competitors to ever step on a diamond and would never even hesitate to drop a bunt up the third base line for a base hit…except when Buck Weaver was down there (of course he would still challenge Weaver to make a play but he’d at least think about it first).

Weaver was a switch hitter with speed and a great glove with a reputation for his competitive edge and gamer mentality. He always wanted to make a case for himself rather than being convicted as part of the group but was never given the opportunity. I say we should at least give him the opportunity to be allowed into the hall.

My biggest issue with the way these guys have been treated comes with the idea of a ‘lifetime ban’ and I ask how long is that? Who’s lifetime are we measuring? The lives of Weaver and Jackson ended quite a while ago so does that mean their bans are up? The fact of the matter is that Jackson’s life was basically over after ‘21 when the ban actually came into effect. Its one of the most tragic stories I’ve ever heard the way Ty Cobb once walked into Joe Jackson’s liquor store and when Cobb asked Jackson if he recognised him Jackson responded by saying, “I didn’t think anyone up there wanted to know me anymore.” Being banned from baseball totally broke Jackson and that is one of the main reasons why I loathe Pete Rose in his almost celebratory ban where he revels in the notoriety his gambling gave him. Jackson’s transgression destroyed him and he suffered mightily for it. If ever there was a man who had served his time, its Joe Jackson. If we accept that he has served his punishment and rather than focussing on that one series in 1919 and looked instead at the rest of his career, then we might remember that Joe Jackson was one of the true great talents to ever play (I had him at fifth on my all time list a few years back).

The guy who really typified the 1919 ChiSox was probably Eddie Ciccotte. He was one of the best pitchers of his generation and would have won 30 games in 1919 if he weren’t forced to sit out half a dozen starts by team owner Charlie Comiskey who basically didn’t want to pay Ciccotte the $10,000 bonus for winning 30 games.

There were few owners who were more parsimonious than Comiskey who was a classic example of why the ‘Reserve Clause’ was so unfair to the players. The ChiSox had assembled a team filled with some of the best players in the league but few were earning what they were worth. They always said that only Hall of Fame second baseman Eddie Collins earned anywhere near what he was worth so it was unsurprising that he was one of the few so called ‘clean Sox’.

For a bonus for making the World Series Comiskey notoriously supplied the team he referred to as the best there ever was, with celebratory champagne that was flat. That’s how much he valued his players. So this was like tying a dog up in the yard for it to be taunted, starved and goaded for days and generally antagonised and then being surprised that it attacked you after being let off its leash. We almost shouldn’t have been surprised that the Series was thrown but we should have been surprised it hadn’t happened before (and who‘s to say it never did?).

In summary then, everyone who was banned was guilty of something (and some of those who weren’t banned too) but none of them have ever been looked at as individuals with certain roles within the make up of the fix. Is it fair that Buck Weaver, who merely knew about the fix but hardly played badly throughout the Series, should be treated the same way as Chick Gandil who instigated the fix and did all he could to make the fix work?

Someone needs to dig their head out of the sand and re-evaluate how baseball history wants to view these guys and ask themselves if the punishment they have served is worth their crime? I personally feel that Joe Jackson, Buck Weaver and possibly Eddie Ciccotte should be in the Hall of Fame but if someone were to look into their cases and be able to point at specific evidence for each individual that marks what exact rationale there is for them not to be in, then I would certainly listen and maybe re-evaluate my own views but for as long as we blame the forest for the actions of a few trees then people will constantly question how just MLB has been in the handling of this tragic unit and they will be that black mark on the history of baseball instead of just one of the games tragic and unfortunate tales. Is what they did worse than what all those owners and commissioners did to keep the likes of Josh Gibson and ‘Cool Papa’ Bell out of baseball? Some of them ARE in the Hall of Fame.

Another Year, Another Curse

Well, that’s it. The season is over and Chicago made us all wonder how on Earth did Houston get passed St Louis? In what was billed as a battle of two vaunted pitching staffs ended up being a lesson in what makes a champion and its not pitching, its not defence and its not offence. Its having the right blend of all of those things and Chicago had great pitching, played excellent D (maybe people will start echoing my championing of Joe Crede as the premier defensive third baseman in the AL and possibly all of MLB) and had the ability to create runs in several ways…and it also didn’t hurt that their manager seems to have instilled a sense of invincibility in the club house. Whenever Houston actually conjured up a run or two, the White Sox answered straight back and then some.

So last year it was Boston doing away with the apparent ghost of some George Herman Ruth guy (I think he was in The Munsters) and this year a skid dating back to 1917 has been bounced so what does that mean? Will the Cubs win it all next year? Wouldn’t that be thoroughly ludicrous, unlikely and strangely poetic. Cleveland seems like a more likely candidate having torn up most of the AL in the second half of this season before being felled by Ozzie’s boys in the last few days of the regular season (if their bats had been awake in the first month and a half then we would likely have a different champion now) but that would be too obvious a choice to maintain the trend.

Its been a funny start to the 21st century with a different champion every year. It will be interesting to see if Chicago can buck the trend by repeating, and if they can re-sign Paul Konerko there is no reason they can’t, but it would be great to have yet another team crop up and surprise us all by denying Boston and New York their expected end of year parade (you know everyone will be saying how one of the two will be the class of the field next season). So let me be the first to say that the 2006 season will end with Milwaukee winning in six against Tampa…wouldn’t that be something?

Saturday, October 22, 2005

Mazzone an Oriole

Can I just start by saying, "Oh my God!" The worst run franchise in baseball have just landed possibly the greatest coaching asset in baseball and I just can't believe that its happened.

Leo Mazzone has been responsible for the development and redevlopment of so many great pitchers in Atlanta from the likes of Steve Avery and Tom Glavine to Mike Hampton and John Thomson and you have to wonder how this move will effect Atlanta? I'm sure Schuerholtz has a plan (he always seems to) but how do you replace a guy like Rocking Leo?

For the Orioles this could be the start of a move to actually address their complete lack of pitching depth (hard to believe I know). One thing that limits the effect of this addition is the barren Baltimore farm system which limits the number of clay pieces that Leo can mould to, basically, Hayden Penn. If Angelos stops interfering with the GM and allows the team to actually go after talented prospects in the draft, who knows how quickly this team can actually get back to competing for the pennant? Either way Mazzone seems to be looking forward to working with long time friend, Sam Perlozzo and Baltimore can only improve themselves with Leo rocking away in the dugout and time can only tell what Atlanta pull out of the hat.

Could this be the end of the dynasty?

Television Replays by Matthew Astbury

You may or may not have heard that I'm having trouble updating this site as regularly as I'd like so I've been looking for help and Matt has answered the call. So enjoy this little ditty from someone who I hope will chirp up with plenty more input even if it goes against my own personal views (hey, even I can be humble sometimes)

It’s the bottom of the ninth inning, score tied at 1-1, two outs, and a two strike count, the game looking to go into extra’s to the dismay of half the crowd, yet the relief of the other. The pitcher (in this case Kelvim Escobar) winds up, and lets loose a superb slider in which the White Sox catcher A.J Pierzynski took a huge swing and miss, and Angels catcher Josh Paul catches. The home side begin to walk off and prepare for extras. However, home plate umpire Doug Eddings is looking bemused, as he has sent Pierzynski down to first base. The question is, did Paul catch the slider BEFORE the ball struck the ground? Well according to the home plate ump, no, and to Paul, yes. All this in turn leads us back to the question, should television replays be allowed in the majors? (as we all know the Chi Sox went on to win the game with the following at bat, and as I write this have taken a 3-1 series lead)

There are many advantages and disadvantages to having television replays, which have all been discussed before, however I personally think that the Majors could benefit from TV replays. I mean, if the Chi Sox now get to the World Series at the expense of the LAA, in my opinion it is all down to that dubious call made by Eddings. The Angels had the moment with being at home and were playing good baseball, and I believe that they would have gone on to win that game, and take a 2-0 lead in the series. But now we may have a team in the October classic which (based on the ALCS) shouldn’t be there.

Don’t get me wrong the Chi Sox have had an AMAZING season, and overall do deserve to go to the WS, but not from the ALCS.

Television replays could benefit the game from many different view points. They could help decide on weather a homerun was or was not, as in if the ball cleared the yellow line (in game 4 of the NLDS between Astros and Braves, the ninth inning homerun was a difficult call), if the catch behind the plate or in the outfield was infact a catch. Whether a baserunner was thrown out, hit by pitch, foul ball or not, fan interference. All these decisions could have a massive impact on the turnout of the game, weather it be in regular season play, or post season play, all these decisions need to made correctly, and I believe that the best way for that is to have television replays. This means that the decision can be made correctly, and inevitably, quickly, so it will not interfere with the game. It just makes sense. I mean, take cricket for example. They have now introduced the rule where the on-field umpires can refer any decision to the 4th official (television replay, basically), which means that they can now make game altering decisions within seconds, and get them done correctly! It is so logical that I just cant believe that baseball hasn’t followed suit. No hassle, no stress needed, just a quick simple sign to the television umpire, and bob’s your uncle you get a correct, and possible game altering decision made in seconds.

I do see the other side of the argument as well, in theory it will all run soundly, no mistakes, no long delays, and all the correct decisions, however in reality we all know that this is not true. On such a hard call, like the one mentioned in the opening paragraph, it could and most likely will take a few minutes to make a judgment, it will inevitably ruin the course of the game, as it will cause a hold up. Yes, I'll admit it, the umpires on the television replays do sometimes get the calls wrong, but this is by no means any reason to just so quickly and forcefully go against this idea because in the end the umpire will have had ample time to study the numerous angles available to them, which in turn allows them to make a quality and educated call, which 9 times out of 10 will be correct.

So I am all for the television replay system being introduced to the wonderful game that is baseball as, by and large, we all want the best team to win every game, even if it means we have to send a few calls to the replay to make sure that ultimately the best team does in fact, win.

Sunday, October 16, 2005

10 Minor Leaguers Waiting in the Wings

10 1B Kendry Morales - AA Arkansas (Angels)
.306 Avg, .349 OBP, .530 SLG, 47 R, 17 HR, 54 RBI
Well it took a while for the paper work to be filed and contracts to be signed but as soon as this Cuban defector got to play he started hitting. Morales is fundamentally sound from both sides of the plate with good power potential and had drawn strong comparisons in his homeland to Omar Linares prior to his defection (Omar Linares could well have been the best third baseman since Mike Schmidt if not for the Cuban embargo) so we can but wait to see how true that is.
Defensively he has already impressed many with his soft hands and ability to haul in errant throws (not that he should have to do that much with the array of infield talent Anaheim has assembled).

9 SS Erick Aybar - AA Arkansas (Angels)
.303 Avg, .350 OBP, .445 SLG, 101 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 49 SB
There aren’t enough Erick Aybar’s in the world. A flashy shortstop with speed and athleticism, Aybar makes things happen both in the field and at the top of the order and really harkens back to the really traditional view of everything you would want from shortstop before the likes of A-Rod, Nomar and Tejada made everyone think that defence up the middle should be sacrificed for another bat and the sad thing is that with Orlando Cabrera locked up for the next few years with the big club and Brandon Wood ripping the seams off the ball Aybar could end up being the odd man out.
There aren’t enough Erick Aybar’s in the world.

8 LHP Chuck James - AAA Richmond (Braves)
13-7, 2.12 ERA, 193 K, 36 BB, 161 IP, .179 avg
Chuck James might not have five A’s in his name or be a good hitting catcher but he is a dominating leftie who played at three different levels in the Braves system this year and across the three he was the toughest pitcher to hit in minor league baseball. His fastball isn’t overpowering but he mixes it well with his off speed stuff and locates in the style that has become typical of Braves pitching over the last decade. All in all not a bad year from a guy who managed to injure both his arms jumping from a roof before being drafted (apparently his ability to aim himself at swimming pools isn’t as good as his ability to aim his pitches).

7 SS Marcus Sanders - Low A Augusta (Giants)
.300 Avg .407 OBP .400 SLG 86 R, 5 HR, 40 RBI, 57 SB
His shoulder is still bothering him which might mean a move to second is likely, the Giants are hopeful it won’t continue to hamper his power. As it stands right now he is stupid quick with great hands and feet in the field and a disciplined hitter capable of getting on and making life hell for pitchers. If the power comes then the Rickey comparisons will continue.

6 2B Howie Kendrick - AA Arkansas (Angels)
.367 Avg, .406 OBP, .614 SLG, 104 R, 19 HR, 89 RBI, 25 SB
Possibly the best pure hitter in the minors, his manager has compared his smooth swing to that of Tony Gwynn which is quite something to say about a guy in AA. He allows to ball to get deep on him and finds a way to get the sweet spot of the bat on the ball and drive it. It doesn’t look likely that he’ll develop much power but if continues to be among the leaders for average in every league he plays I don’t think anyone will mind.

5 RF Carlos Quentin - AAA Tucson (Diamondbacks)
.301 Avg, .422 OBP, .520 SLG, 98 R, 21 HR, 89 RBI
This is the sort of guy that would have Billy Beane drowning in his own drool. Quentin has a great natural power swing and makes the most of it with great plate discipline and on top of that he’s a solid right fielder who has spent some time at centre. Not bad eh?

4 C Jarrod Saltalamacchia -High A Myrtle Beach (Braves)
.314 Avg, .394 OBP, .519 SLG, 70 R, 19 HR, 81 RBI
There are a three things that really are hard for teams to find that every team wishes they could have. These include hard throwing lefties, players with five A’s in there name and power hitting catchers with at least an average glove and Saltalamacchia is two of those.
Likened to Jason Varitek, Saltalamacchia is a switch hitter with power from both sides who has worked hard on his receiving skills and footwork. He only managed to throw out 26% of would be base stealers but with his work ethic that could also improve.

3 RHP Joel Zumaya - AAA Toledo (Tigers)
9-5, 2.74 ERA, 199 K, 76 BB, 151 IP, .189 Avg
This guy is nasty. Only Francisco Liriano struck out more hitters in minor league ball than Liriano.
Zumaya comes at you with a fastball that can get into triple digits and he complements that with a decent curve. He’s starting now but is expected to make a switch to the bullpen at some time (heck, one of those flamethrowers Detroit are churning out these days has to go there) so think a right handed Billy Wagner.

2 SS Brandon Wood - AAA Salt Lake (Angels)
.321 Avg, .379 OBP, .667 SLG, 110 R, 43 HR, 116 R
Little can be said about the year Brandon Wood has had in ‘05. Drafted as a glove man, Wood erupted with an almighty display of power for Rancho Cucamonga in The Cali with 101 extra base hits (next best in the minors was Andy Green with 78). The unparalleled depth the Angels have in the middle infield throughout the system means there are a few questions as to how they’ll handle guys like Wood but you know he’ll be given a good look next year and should be with the big league team at some point next season.

1 RF Delmon Young - AAA Durham (Devil Rays)
.285 Avg, .303 OBP, .447 SLG, 33 R, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 7 SB
Gave the Southern League a good whooping for most of the year before being moved up to Durham. Tampa haven’t endeared themselves to him by not calling him up in September but with the big shake up in the front office you can expect Mr Young to be a major front runner for Rookie of the Year in ‘06.

Friday, October 07, 2005

Time For The Playoffs

Well, that’s it. Season over. At least the preamble that is the regular season for now we head off into the real stuff as the post-season looms large over us.

Of course the Yankees and BoSox might think that the playoffs started about a month ago and have finally found a way to shake off those pesky Indians who finally fell foul of that terrible start they had all the way back in April (remember that far back?). If Cleveland could have found it within themselves to beat the ChiSox a couple of times in that last series I would now be saying how great a chance they had to win it all but that hasn’t happened and now it really would take a miracle (hey, they found an extra RBI for Hack Wilson a few years back so maybe they’ll find a missing win for the Indians).

Once again, as predicted, the Yankees and Red Sox have made the playoffs but unlike in pre-season predictions by many experts, I can’t see either team winning a World Series with their respective pitching staffs.

Randy Johnson came on strong down the stretch and is a truly clutch performer but Chien-Ming Wang is the only guy who has been even remotely consistent in that rotation all year and while I don’t doubt his big game temperament I do have questions as to the endurance of that young arm. Of course the rest of the potential starters for the Yanks have it within themselves to be productive in the post-season, the likes of Pavano, Mussina and Wright all look past their prime or maybe just unable to deal with being a Yankee.

I’m not even sure about their pen’s ability to get to Rivera and while I doubt Torre will have a problem sending Mo out for two innings for the save, I doubt he’ll ask him to go three.
The Red Sox aren’t much better and they might even be worse. I never bet against Curt Schilling but he went through so much last year (just another chapter in the legacy of one of baseballs all time great competitors) that it has left him playing catch up for most of the year. Matt Clement has been as awful as his beard since the All Star break and then you’re looking to rely on a knuckleballer to provide you with consistent starts.

The Boston pen has been [insert expletive] all year.

Of course what both teams have is a lot of players who have been there before and whilst New York have lost most of their energy players, they still have Derek Jeter who should once again show why he is the leader of this team and why A-Rod is just a slugging third baseman.

The Red Sox have a plethora of guys who give the team energy and Big Papi has been clutch all year. You can never doubt that Boston will fight to the end and will never be beaten and someone will have to take their hands off the trophy because they won’t just give it up.

Elsewhere in the AL you have the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim who have looked as perplexing as their ridiculous moniker all year. Their line-up is stacked with speed and power with depth on the bench and that man Vlad, yet they had to fight off an offensively challenged A’s team late into the year to win the division. The only question going into the year was the pitching and Lackey and Colon have been one of the AL’s best one-two punches all year so how they managed not to win their division by June and end up with over 100 wins is beyond me. They still have all of that going for them (except maybe Colon showing a bit of wear and tear after being a horse all year) so they could still storm through and kick some serious ass but they won’t be as intimidating as they should have been.

The way I see it is that the ChiSox just swept the best team in baseball since the All Star break going into the post-season, they have their pitching set how they want it going into the first round and that pitching from starter to closer is probably the best of any of this years playoff teams in either league. Add to that they have a scrappy batting order with speed at the top and some pop in the middle (not a lot but some) and play great D. This has to be the team to beat in the AL and maybe the talk of a team from Chicago ending a long stretch without a title was directed at the wrong side of town.

The National League is a curious place this year. Much has been made of San Diego and the way they managed to win out west with a .500 record but when they have Jake Peavy on the mound and Hoffman in the pen they will have a chance to win games against anyone. Admittedly on the days they don’t have Peavy going they look a very average side but the playoffs are a freaky time of year when the team with the best record rarely seems to win it all.

The Astros will see most of their games decided when they try to get the ball from the starter to Lidge because they will not score enough runs to put teams away and their middle relief is not great. That basically means that Oswalt and Pettitte should make things tough for the opposition but Clemens will struggle to get decisions if he continues to pass up the game in the sixth and seventh to protect his numbers.

In theory, the Astros should look a tough team in post-season play due to their rotation but every gut feeling I have says they won’t make it.

Atlanta have managed to win yet another division crown and this time with a pieced together team of reclamation projects and a tonne of farmhands. With their rotation mostly back together and sporting one of the best post-season pitchers of all time (John Smoltz) it should take pressure off the young hitters but the question remains as to how much gas those young guys have left in their tanks and how long Andruw can keep up this incredible run of form?

The class of the NL should remain the reigning NL champs in St Louis who will have the benefit of having their key pitchers healthy this time around (I’m still amazed Carpenter hasn’t injured himself yet) and with Pujols in the line-up you never have to worry about production.

The Cardinal line-up has been banged up all year but the guys they’ve brought in have done a great job filling gaps and David Eckstein has looked more than good enough to justify his All Star status this season at the top of the order.

So who’s going to win it all this year? Before the year started I pegged the Braves to lose to the Angels and that’s still on so I should probably should stick with that (hell, if it happens how cool would that make me look?) but right now the odds are on the ChiSox and Cards and I have no idea who would win that.

One thing I am sure about is that this one of the most wide open playoffs I have seen in a long time and I can’t remember the last time we had a year when a favourite wasn’t obvious. What we have is a lot of flawed teams with big time performers who might play the game in different ways but all are capable of coming up big and carrying their team all the way to the promised land.

Friday, September 16, 2005

AL MVP - The Real Difference Makers

Apparently people actually read this and might be disappointed that I have not updated this blog in a fortnight (I can only wonder why?). I had intended to write about the worlds smallest scorecard (it really was small and I might write about it soon anyway) but instead I shall stick to more ordinary topics till I can finally get moved into a new house.

Anyway…

Its coming to the end of the year and people are starting to talk about who will be the league MVP’s and typically all the Yankee and BoSox fans are once again making us believe that only one of their guys can possibly win the award. Of course they seem oblivious to the fact that despite they have the two highest payrolls in baseball their teams have been hit and miss all year with heavy bouts of ordinaryness and despite their high talent level neither has secured a playoff spot yet (as was predicted before the year) and one might even miss out altogether and not many would have foreseen that at the beginning of the year. So despite this underachieving we are led to believe that we should be looking to A-Rod and David Ortiz to find the AL MVP this year or in other words, who has contributed most to the missing of a teams preseason targets?

For starters, why should the MVP be a middle order guy? People seem to have the fixation with numbers or, to be more accurate, the accumulation of numbers rather than looking at what the numbers mean. The fact of the matter is, there are only two middle of the order guys who actually influence how teams approach the whole line-up and they are Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds. Take Big Papi out of the Boston line-up and they’ll just plug one of many big bats into the order and that machine like offence will roll on, constantly hoping their pitching concedes less runs than they score. Take Rodriguez out of the Yankee line-up and well…nothing really, Sheffield is still the impact bat in the order and Jason Giambi would continue to be the difference maker as he continues his post-confessional renaissance. I suppose the Yankee clubhouse would have more personality.

Now if you really look at the best offences in the league, it starts at the top of the order (except for The Yankees who just don’t so much get bang for the buck as use bucks for bangs). You only have to look at Florida to see a floundering offence due to an ineffective leadoff man (Juan ‘me and Mike Lowell are taking the year off’ Pierre) suddenly get going when they get someone effective at the top of the order (Luis Castillo).

Last year you might remember Boston were getting a good kicking from the Yankees until Johnny Damon suddenly had an idea that a few big hits might help his team. You might also remember that St Louis were almost unbeatable until they decided the World Series was a good time to put a new guy at the top of the order.

Right now the best team in the AL, maybe even in all of baseball, is the Cleveland Indians and those of us with a memory will remember they couldn’t hit for toffee at the beginning of the year (if they could people would be talking about Kevin Millwood and his Atlanta days) and it wasn’t until Grady Sizemore was plugged into the leadoff spot that their season took off and their belated playoff march ensued. Sounds like an MVP to me.

Of course we can’t ignore the White Sox who were far and away the best team in the AL for so long, then Scott Podesednik got injured and it levelled off and now he’s back the ship has started to right itself (we’ll see how their season finishes). So much has been made of Ozzie Guillen and the job he’s done this year (and quite rightly) and of course the pen is great and the rotation is anchored by the oft under rated but undoubtedly superb Mark Buerhle (the win lovers will look past him again for the Cy) but no one typifies the whole Ozzie Guillen ‘Go-Go Sox’ philosophy like Podsednik as he has slapped away and run about as much as he’s been able and has created so much for a light-weight but effective offence.

I like to look beyond the usual suspects and try to stay away from the north-east bias that seems to permeate these issues (although the MVP always seems to come from out West) but we have two teams in the Central who have surpassed expectations and much of that has happened due to the igniters at the top of their line-ups. They might be the best two teams in the AL so can we at least try to look beyond homeruns and think about how else people help their teams and maybe give the likes of Sizemore and Podsednik some credit for what they have meant to their teams?

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Felix V The Big Unit

Every now and then there are pitching match-ups that you look at and know that something special is about to occur.

Randy Johnson has long been the dominant lefty pitcher in baseball with his long, gangly frame and the KFC beard staring down hitters and abusing them with his heat and the hard and tight slider which for some reason leaves a lot of lefty batters feeling a bit queezy and wanting the day off.

Felix Hernandez is a 19 year old pitcher who has recently been brought up to the big club and minor league hitters are happy. Yet to fully fill out, Hernandez is able to get his fastball into the high 90's already and throws an assortment of hard and sharp breaking pitches that has seen him climb to the top of Baseball America's prospect ratings. The last time someone came up so early to this kind of hype was Rick Ankiel so lets hope Hernandez has better luck.

In short, this was a match-up between one of baseballs most dominant forces over the last decade and someone who could usurp him as the next immovable object that hitters want to take the day off against.

The game was set up as a landmark event and it lived up to those expectations.

Johnson threw as good a game as he has done in Yankee pinstripes allowing just three seventh inning hits, striking out seven before turning the game over to the bullpen in the top of the 8th. Hernandez countered by going eight and with the help of some great Mariner infield D (I do like Betancourt) matched The Unit for K's and allowed just four hits. The sad thing for Hernandez was that he learned the hard way that Sheffield can juice anyones fastball and, coupled with another solo shot the inning before by Robinson Cano gave New York all the runs they needed as the Yankee pen closed out the game to seal a 2-0 win.

I suppose this game tells us that, even though it hasn't been a vintage season by Johnson, he still rules the roost but Felix Hernandez is right on his shoulder waiting to take over. This kid can hang with the big boys but it might help to have someone other than Gary Sheffield at the plate sitting on a fastball.

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Down the Stretch

Well, its crunch time and its time to see who really wants it most. I can't remember the last time there were so many uncertainties this late in the year with only the NL Central really looking done.

AL East
Boston are on top at the moment but are looking far from convincing. That pen still looks shaky and the rotation is not what it should be...I'll bet Red Sox fans are really thankful they still have Manny and Ortiz...I couldn't believe it when I heard The Yankees had acquired Matt Lawton as he should be the guy at the top of the order who brings consistency and speed and moves Jeter into the second spot where he excels. Cashman has actually made a move that helps his team...Wang has started his rehab in Columbus and his return would boost a rotation full of big names who aren't living up to reputations...The winner of this division is just going to come down to who gets hot at the right time because both Boston and New York have their strengths and weaknesses in exactly the same areas...Toronto should be happy with the way they've performed this year and while they've hit a bump in the road (common for young teams) and fallen away from the big two, there is plenty here to build on for the future and Ricciardi seems to be eyeing a number of big free agents for the off season...Surprise, surprise Baltimore! It wasn't Mazilli who was losing you games, its that poor excuse for a pitching staff who have come down to Earth. I hope Angelos is happy...Tampa have played some good ball in recent weeks but how frustrating must it be for D-Ray fans knowing they could have bolstered those efforts to claw back the feeble Orioles by plugging in Delmon Young and 'E6' BJ Upton. I guess there's always net year...Scott Kazmir has had a great rookie year covered up by his teams low profile and has looked strong in the second half...

AL Central
Well Podsednik is back in the line-up so The ChiSox should wrap up this division and get themselves set for the post-season and once again prove to everyone that pitching, speed and defence are always a good receipe for a consistent and successful team...Can Mark Buerhle get a Cy and lead this team to The Series?...Kevin Millwood and Jake Westbrook must be wondering why The Indian offence couldn't have hit like this sooner because that might have gotten them the wins their performances deserved. Now Cleveland are hitting they look like a very formidable team with a very good chance at the playoffs...If The Twins want to make the playoffs they better slap Morneau around the head so that he can give another post-concussion hot streak and be the power hitter in the middle of the order that they've needed because right now they just aren't good enough to mix it up with the big boys...Alan Trammell has done a good job getting his players to believe they can be winners...Detroit have some very lively arms brewing in the minors looking to join the impressive Bonderman and with the likes of Shelton, Granderson, Monroe and Rodney emerging and key glue guys like Polanco and Rodriguez signed up for a few years winning teams might be returning to Michigan...I've always like the design on KC's caps...

AL West
Oakland are riding their pitching on a serious hot streak since the All Star break and their offence has been sporadic enough to get them enough runs to win the only question is how long they can keep it up?...Huston Street Rookie of the Year?...I tell you why The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim haven't sewn up this division already, its the stupidly long name. Thats the only reason I can think of because this is a team with so much talent in all areas that they should be abusing the AL. If they can get it going they could win it all but they need to get going very, very soon...Texas seemed to really fall out of the race about the time of the whole Kenny Rogers incident that really seemed to knock them off their stride...I actually think Seattle fans should be optimistic about the near future with The Mariners having spent much of the year dumping aging salary eating players and giving some youngsters a chance to show what they can do at the Big League leve. They could well retool in the offseason to complement the youngsters...I do like Yuniesky Betancourt and that Felix Hernandez is a bit of alright...

NL East
Atlanta might not be safe in first place but they've gotta like their chances. Schuerholtz and Cox just don't seem to ever make bad decisions and its shocking how many rookies they've brought into the team and have produced...The pitching seems to be getting healthy so any playoff run will come down to how much pressure the likes of Smoltz and Hudson can take off the young bats...Its been a funny season in Florida. Their line-up has been nowhere near as productive as was expected, the pen has been severely shaken up (well done Todd Jones) and the pitching has been subject to so much conjecture but somehow The Marlins are still right in the thick of the playoff hunt...Florida has all the tools to beat anyone...Whats going on in Philadelphia? They look good for a while and then suddenly they look likely to crawl under a rock somewhere and then they get back up and make people believe in them again. Why can't they face up to the fact that its just not going to happen?...I have a theory that the horrific clash between Cameron and Beltran was just the baseball gods way of balancing up the fact that Cliff Floyd has lasted a whole year without serious injury...Of course The Mets have more important things to worry about now but they have done great for a team with no bullpen and Mike Piazza...We all knew it would happen and The Nationals have sunk from the top spot to the bottom of the East but thats more to do with the strength of the division...Can people please start mentioning Livan Hernandez as being one of the very best pitchers in baseball today?...

NL Central
St Louis have won the division. Pujols will win the league MVP and Chris Carpenter is looking good for the Cy. I think that covers the Cards...Even with no offence the Astros have hung in with the teams in the East for the Wild Card. There is no denying Houston's arms but how long can they scratch out just enough runs to win?...Milwaukee have come along leaps and bounds this year and with the youth in their team they might well be contenders this time next year...Its all gone tits up for Cubs fans. Aramis Ramirez is done. Wood is done. Lawton is gone. Patterson is back. And they're six games under .500. Derrek Lee has had a great year but even his MVP push is starting to fade...Cincinnati's season seems to have come down to whether or not they keep Junior Griffey...It even looks like Adam Dunn might lose his ML strikeout crown too, thats how uneventful life as a Reds fan is...Pittsburgh had something going for them with Zach Duke taking on all comers but he's likely done for the year...I just found at that the Pirates have a slogan for the year of 'Come Hungry'. Its interesting to see a team market itself on its food rather than the game they play but in The Pirates case it might be a good idea...

NL West
Jake Peavy has practically won this division by himself as he seems to be the only marquee pitcher in the division who can win games consistently for his team...Many people thought that the Padres would win this division but I doubt anyone thought it would be like this...Arizona have undoubtedly done enought to give them some credibility this year rebounding from last years mess and it is concievable that if their bats got hot they could make up the gap to San Diego but at this point if anyone got hot in this division they could make the playoffs...I'm sure you've heard that LA's farm team in Jacksonville have been voted the most talented team in the minors, I guess there's that to look forward to for Dodger fans. Right now Depodestra just doesn't seem to know how to win in Dodger Stadium with a small ball minded manager, playing in a pitchers park with a long ball team. Of course injuries haven't helped but someone needs to look at what has brought success to LA in previous seasons as change for change sake is never a good idea...I wonder if The Giants sit in the dug out looking across the field at the opposition and grumble about kids today?...Looking at San Francisco this year should remind us just how good Barry Bonds is...Todd Helton has gotten his bat going again in the second half and Jeff Francis has had a solid rookie campaign in the rarified air but we still can't ignore that purple is not a baseball colour....

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

10 Guys Who Want More Than a Cup of Coffee

10 Dioner Navarro,Catcher, Los Angeles Dodgers - When the incumbent at your position is hitting .238 and is ineffective in the field then you know you'll get a shot. Should give LA a shot in the arm and tide them over till Russ Martin is ready in a year or two.

9 Jon Papelbon, Pitcher, Boston Red Sox - I know its amazing that The Sox have promoted someone from the farm (there is hope for Hanley Ramirez still) but Boston are having serious problems with their pitching and he can definately help.

8 Jason Vargas, Pitcher, Florida Marlins - Everyone was going on about Scott Olsen and he just wasn't ready. Vargas has done well so far since moving to the rotation and is really auditioning well for the post-Burnett era in Florida.

7 Brad Eldred, 1st Baseman, Pittsburgh Pirates - Much like The Brewers, Pittsburgh are starting to blood some of their promising farm hands and this is one with some serious pop in his bat and whiffs with the best of them.

6 Edwin Encarnacion, 3rd Baseman, Cincinnati Reds - The top rated hitter in the Reds farm means there is one less hole on that infield.

5 Fernando Cabrera, Pitcher, Cleveland Indians - The Indians had so many problems in their pen last year and now they have this gem come through their system. Soon they won't worry when Wickman will eventually break down.

4 Bobby Jenks, Pitcher, Chicago White Sox - I still can't believe Anaheim let this one slip through their fingers. He might have a reputation as a trouble maker and a history of arm problems but his stuff is downright filthy.

3 Jeff Francoeur, Outfielder, Atlanta Braves - This guy is so much fun. A decent outfielder and one of the most aggressive hitters you will ever see. He comes up there hacking and when you're hitting .350+ you can get away with it. If you manage to walk him then you really need to ask yourself how?

2 Curtis Granderson, Outfielder, Detroit Tigers - The Tigers aren't just a bunch of pitching prospects, they also have this guy. He can do it all and will be the linchpin of this order when Detroit get all those arms up.

1 Casey Kotchman, 1st Baseman, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (they're the Anaheim Angels, who are we kidding?) - I was waiting all the way up to the trade deadline to see this guy dealt but he's up and showing the power Anaheim have been waiting for him to develop. This guy has been touted as one of baseballs next big things by many an expert and now he's going to be given a chance to show why.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

BJ Upton - Bust or Next Coming

For a few years now BJ Upton has had his name at the top of several high profile lists of the best prospects in baseball and the principle building block of a promising Devil Rays team being built through the farm.

So far this year he is hitting .304 with an OBP of .390, a slugging percentage of .498 and you can throw in 37 steals to boot which is pretty damn good at any level and is exceptional for a 21 year old.

I have a slight problem with the 106 strike outs in 474 at bats but it seems K's aren't the big deal they used to be.

So why do I feel he might be a bust? The number 46 is all I need say.

Usually 46 is not a bad baseball number. Good for home runs, doubles, stolen bases and a few other things. Not good in errors though. Like I said to Neil M of 3,079 Miles..., I never thought anyone could commit that many errors until someone actually did...not even Cano!

46 errors is a ludicrous amount for a whole year and he's still got time to make more. Hitting more triples than K's is one of baseballs Holy Grails but more errors than doubles is not. The only way you could do worse is to have more errors than RBI (his 64 RBI would be a tall order to top, even for him).

They figure this guy will be the starting shortstop for a number of years and they hit the ball a lot harder and more often in The Bigs so I doubt that will happen, but where do you put such a natural athlete? The outfield is stacked and you wonder about a guy who commits 46 errors (46!!!) spending time at any infield position. Its possible he could DH and it looks like the best option but not what Tampa were expecting I'm sure.

Of course he still is 21 and has plenty of time to develop but you wonder what effect all this fallibility will have on the guy? If he is driven it will drive him nuts and if it doesn't then you wonder about his drive. This guy has serious talent but he could end up doing more harm than good if he doesn't sort out his D. Anyone remember Jose Canseco?

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Only in New York - Flying Fans

Anyone with a daughter in their mid to late teens and lives in or around Armonk, New York should remember this name, Scott Harper. He is 18 years old and a total spack.

This young man is the sort of person who sits in the upper deck of Yankee Stadium and looks at the netting behind home plate and not only thinks about whether the netting could hold him but actually goes out to test his theory by jumping onto it.

This boy is dangerous and needs serious psychological help and if your daughter brings him home do your best to keep him busy whilst you wait for some friendly folk who will suit him up in a fetching white jacket with long sleeves and buckles on the back.

If ever there was a kid who needed a good slap to the back of the head its Scott Harper.

Friday, August 05, 2005

Angelos is an Idiot

Lee Mazilli has been dumped by Baltimore amidst the best season they've had in ages. If they had some quality in that rotation they might well be in first place still. Admittedly there have been some grumblings amongst the players in the clubhouse but they were still playing well (maybe not recently but...).

For a franchise that has made so many bad decisions we shouldn't be surprised. I'm just waiting to see what happens now but I wouldn't be surprised if they remain mired in 4th place and Lee Mazilli gets a shot somewhere else in the not too distant future.

Rafi the Drug Fiend?

Well, it couldn't have come at a worse time in many regards. After becoming the fourth guy to hit 500 homeruns and collect 3000 hits, Rafael Palmeiro has been found to be in breach of the MLB drug policy and will serve a 10 game ban. Of course everyone is asking if this will harm his Hall of Fame chances or even if this means Canseco was right and he's been juiced his whole career?

I have always been inclined to assume the best and think that maybe Palmeiro might have just taken the wrong cough medicine or something and this is just a mistake. The reason you have a three strike policy is to cover such eventuallities.

The really big question is what will Congress do? Unlike many of those fingered by Canseco, Palmeiro didn't take the fifth and stated quite clearly that he did not do drugs and in light of his recent failed test, Congress have begun investigating potential perjury charges and if they can prove that he actually took steroids before (I find the chances of them proving such a thing remote to say the least) then it really won't look good.

Of course we wouldn't need to be double guessing all this if MLB had instituted a drug policy sooner but as it stands I can still see Palmeiro making The Hall, albeit under a dark cloud. He's had a great career and there is some ambiguity as to any long term steroid use and a lot of writers seem to be able to look past such transgressions with certain players. Personally, I'm still bitter that Palmeiro stole a Gold Glove from David Segui and that Joe Carter was well and truly snubbed by The Hall so no one should ever be allowed in until that is sorted (I can be so petty sometimes).

We shall see what happens.