T(or)onto! Jump on it! Jump on it! Jump on it!

Conor dit:


Ever heard of light disappearing back up a tunnel? That's what JP Ricciardi must have been experiencing this summer. Just when he had his squad make a major breakthrough and guzzump one of the lofty two in the AL East, the team he beat goes and spends a tonne of money on pitching, shores up its bull pen, becomes offensively better and generally sticks its two fingers up at the Canadians. With all due respect to Toronto, there's just no way they can overcome their two competitors for silver ware. They have money again after the shaving measures of recent years, but in a buy buy buy situation, they will lose literally every time.

Offence

Well as I see it the Blue Jays have some very good players offensively. They have the big slugger in Troy Glaus at third, the five tool centre fielder in Vernon Wells (who is probably one of the more underrated players in the league although not according to his contract haha), a solid catcher in Zaun and I really like the corner outfielders' potential. Alex Rios is a great hitter who is really developing power at a nice steady level. Could this be his breakout year? Reed Johnson is a solid if not spectacular left fielder and will contribute both with the long and shorter balls.

Lyle Overbay must also be exciting Bue Jays fans at first base as he continue his march towards being one of the better first basemen around, and he has the potential to be a he power hitter. He was truly a great pick up and he should really start to get the recognition he deserves this season.

Aaron Hill is a nice contact hitter and is the sort of guy who can make a difference either at the top or bottom of the line up. While he doesn't have fence traversing power, his speed can turn a lot of long singles into doubles with in the end is every bit as useful (although the Jays don't really tend to run). Finally at short stop Royce Clayton is slightly out of the mould of offensively minded number 6s that we normally expect from an AL side, but he is a very solid defender.

Pitching

Well the rotation isn't very exciting. It contains a good one-two punch, enough to put a stop on any skid the team might find themselves on, but realistically it isn't good enough to compete. The biggest free agent farce in terms of pitching I can remember was the clubs queued up to sign Tomo Ohka. The Jays 'won' the war to vastly overpay a guy who has only ever once come even close to pitching 200 innings. Seriously I can't start to put into words how much I hated this signing for the Jays. They can't even try to ship him without eating a huge part of his contract when he goes down injured again (and while it's not something I wish on any player, it's just difficult to believe that he's healthy).

Well enough downside (until I get torn into Chacin in a minute!!), let's talk about Ray Halladay and AJ Burnett. Halladay is a true ace, stopper, go to guy, whatever you want to call him. I like his pitching a lot and I think he deserves the money that he's getting from the Jays. He should be good for 16-20 wins again as his ability merits and on a personal note for him, maybe a ticket to a contender at the deadline if the Jays are way out of the race. Burnett has yet to really prove (to me anyway) that he was worth the money the Jays invested in him. Yeah he's solid and reliable, but was he really the number free agent pitcher just one short year ago?? I'd really like to see him do well because I have a soft spot for that 2003 Marlins team, but I can't see it happening, nor can I see him sticking injury free.

Well in the pen lies BJ Ryan, a solid closer, ever reliable and a good pro. It seems a bit weird for me to be writing this piece evaluating a spate of recent FA signings for a team that isn't the Yankees, but Ryan has been worth the money. The rest of the bull pen is take it or leave it really with the only I really like being Jason Frasor. However maybe Pete can enlighten us further. I meant to keep this short because I knew Pete'd likely have a lot to say about his own team!! Oh well !!

Pete informs :

I'm really not sure whats going to happen in the East this year as both Boston and Toronto have a lot of question marks about their teams whilst having plenty of potential to be amongst the wild card race. Of course the advantage Boston has is greater 'depth' due to deeper pockets but there is plenty of youth in the Jays system and many of their vaunted arms are coming to the point where they need to show if they really have what it takes.

The offence is probably the teams strongest suit. Reed Johnson did a great job once inserted into the leadoff spot at getting on base but it's uncertain if he's a late bloomer or a flash in the pan. Even if he can't repeat last years successes the team is very deep with big boppers and the addition of Frank Thomas means the team has a contingency plan in case the injury bug hits Troy Glaus again and if both go down then that'll make things tough for the talented outfield duo of Alexis Rios and Vernon Wells.

It gets trickier once you get into the pitching and the team is blssed with possibly the best pitcher in baseball not called Santana and the only problem is Halladay's durability. Every year he's a Cy Young candidate and that is impressive when you play in the same league as that guy Minnesota.

Behind Halladay you will have one of the biggest wastes of money in baseball in A.J. Burnett who is as good an example of how pitching is about more than numbers on a radar gun. Blessed with a great curve and what is likely the best fastball in baseball, he stil contrives to be a middle of the road guy. If he ever sorted out his control then the league will have to watch out but he hasn't done that in eight years so why would he start now?

Gustavo Chacin sits nicely in the middle of the rotation and after pitching with a few knocks and scrapes last year we should see the real him this season (alas that won't be as good as his rookie year but won't be as bad as last) and if Tomo Okha can last a full season without snagging a nail he gives the team a wily southpaw at the back end who has a good feel for pitching even if his lack of stuff leaves him a small margin for error (if only we could combine him and Burnett, what a pitcher that would be).

John Thomson adds a bit of grit but is coming off some major injury problems (like pretty much every Blue Jay starter to an extent) but I'm hopeful that Dustin McGowan gets a look in. Even if the results so far have been less than awe inspiring, the guy is still only 25 and has a very lively assortment of pitches and just the look of someone who belongs on the mound.

The effectiveness of the pen is pretty much dependent upon how many innings the starters can log. With the likes of Scott Downs, Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor setting up left handed powerhouse B.J. Ryan (why do parents name their kids B.J?) there is more than strong enough foundation and if Brandon League finally realises that most hitters struggle against 100mph fastballs then the late innings will be tough for opponents.

So what will become of the Jays this year? I honestly can see another second place finish because I'm not at all convinced by Boston but if both teams play to their potential then status quo will likely return and Toronto will be back in third. No matter what happens, a lot will have to go right for them to make the post-season.

And finally :

Seems we agree about much in terms of the Jay's performance. I can't say I have much hope for this team, but one nevers knows! Respect the power of Moneyball and what JP can do with this team !!!